World War Skirmish: How Modern Deterrence is facing a credibility crisis
World War Skirmish : How Modern Deterrence is facing a credibility crisis by Ian Comings In the 5 years since the invasion of Crimea and fear of a Russian Blitzkrieg came roaring into the political discourse, articles about a potential invasion of the Baltic States have been done to death. And while these fears are well founded, it seems that the core reasoning behind this has been lost or at least not frequently described for public consumption. Thus it might seem natural for the layman (or even the relatively well informed) to think that even if Russia took the Baltics in the 36-60 hours predicted by RAND that the weight of NATO men and Materiel would win the day eventually. While this would be true if you presume that western leaders will pay any cost to defend these states, the reality is that retaking the Baltics would likely be prohibitively expensive, potentially leading to western capitulation. This simple fact has profound implications on the effectiveness of 21st ce